Tobacco, nicotine and counter-marketing promotions using Instagram's branded content tool.

BACKGROUND: The social media conglomerate, Meta, has a policy prohibiting promotion of tobacco products, vaporisers, electronic cigarettes or other products that simulate smoking via their branded content tools. This study examines if branded Instagram posts comply with these self-regulatory efforts. METHODS: We analysed the presence and content of tobacco/nicotine promotion, as well as counter-marketing, in a sample of 400 branded/paid partnership-labelled Instagram posts with tobacco/nicotine-related terms made between 31 July 2022 and 31 March 2023, gathered from Meta's CrowdTangle tool and classified by CrowdTangle as being in English. RESULTS: Of the 217 active branded posts that mentioned or depicted tobacco/nicotine products, most promoted rather than countered the sale of such products (84.3% vs 15.7%, respectively). Posts originating from US Instagram users accounted for 42.6% of promotional content. After the USA, posts from Indonesia (19.1%), Pakistan (9.8%) and India (8.2%) were most frequent. Most posts were fully in English (74.9%). Posts featured hookah (39.4%), electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) accessories (17.5%), ENDS devices and e-liquids (16.9%) and various types of cigars (15.3%). The majority of US posts promoted venues or events where tobacco/nicotine products were featured (71.8%). Almost half of all promotional posts (47.0%) were sponsored by tobacco industry accounts. Posts that encouraged cessation were primarily (47.1%) sponsored by non-government organisations. CONCLUSION: Despite attempts at self-regulation, paid partnership posts promoting tobacco and nicotine products are present on Instagram, especially posts promoting venues and events that feature tobacco and nicotine use. Self-regulation of this content shows limited success, suggesting a need for federal oversight and additional counter-marketing in social media settings.

Driving Skills at Licensure and Time to First Crash.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Young drivers are overrepresented in crashes, and newly licensed drivers are at high risk, particularly in the months immediately post-licensure. Using a virtual driving assessment (VDA) implemented in the licensing workflow in Ohio, this study examined how driving skills measured at the time of licensure contribute to crash risk post-licensure in newly licensed young drivers. METHODS: This study examined 16 914 young drivers (<25 years of age) in Ohio who completed the VDA at the time of licensure and their subsequent police-reported crash records. By using the outcome of time to first crash, a Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the risk of a crash during the follow-up period as a function of VDA Driving Class (and Skill Cluster) membership. RESULTS: The best performing No Issues Driving Class had a crash risk 10% lower than average (95% confidence interval [CI] 13% to 6%), whereas the Major Issues with Dangerous Behavior Class had a crash risk 11% higher than average (95% CI 1% to 22%). These results withstood adjusting for covariates (age, sex, and tract-level socioeconomic status indicators). At the same time, drivers licensed at age 18 had a crash risk 16% higher than average (95% CI 6% to 27%). CONCLUSIONS: This population-level study reveals that driving skills measured at the time of licensure are a predictor of crashes early in licensure, paving the way for better prediction models and targeted, personalized interventions. The authors of future studies should explore time- and exposure-varying risks.

Individual differences in delay discounting are associated with dorsal prefrontal cortex connectivity in children, adolescents, and adults.

Delay discounting is a measure of impulsive choice relevant in adolescence as it predicts many real-life outcomes, including obesity and academic achievement. However, resting-state functional networks underlying individual differences in delay discounting during youth remain incompletely described. Here we investigate the association between multivariate patterns of functional connectivity and individual differences in impulsive choice in a large sample of children, adolescents, and adults. A total of 293 participants (9-23 years) completed a delay discounting task and underwent 3T resting-state fMRI. A connectome-wide analysis using multivariate distance-based matrix regression was used to examine whole-brain relationships between delay discounting and functional connectivity. These analyses revealed that individual differences in delay discounting were associated with patterns of connectivity emanating from the left dorsal prefrontal cortex, a default mode network hub. Greater delay discounting was associated with greater functional connectivity between the dorsal prefrontal cortex and other default mode network regions, but reduced connectivity with regions in the dorsal and ventral attention networks. These results suggest delay discounting in children, adolescents, and adults is associated with individual differences in relationships both within the default mode network and between the default mode and networks involved in attentional and cognitive control.

The role of conspiracy mindset in reducing support for child vaccination for COVID-19 in the United States.

Introduction: We have previously proposed and tested a model that predicts reluctance to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US from embrace of a conspiracy mindset that distrusts the federal health agencies of the US government and regards their intentions as malevolent. In this study, we tested the model's ability to predict adult support for COVID vaccination of children ages 5-11 after the vaccine was approved for this age group. Methods: Relying on a national panel that was established in April 2021 (N = 1941) and followed until March of 2022, we examined the relation between conspiratorial thinking measured at baseline and belief in misinformation and conspiracies about COVID vaccines, trust in various health authorities, perceived risk of COVID to children, and belief in conspiracy theories about the pandemic's origin and impact. In addition, we tested a structural equation model (SEM) in which conspiracy mindset predicted adult support for childhood vaccination for COVID in January and March of 2022 as well as the adults own vaccination status and their willingness to recommend vaccinating children against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR). Results: The model accounted for 76% of the variance in support for childhood vaccination for COVID-19; the relation between the mindset and support for vaccination was entirely mediated by baseline assessments of misinformation, trust, risk, and acceptance of pandemic conspiracy theories. Discussion: The SEM replicated the prior test of the model, indicating that a conspiracy mindset present among at least 17% of the panel underlies their resistance to vaccinate both themselves and children. Efforts to counteract the mindset will likely require the intervention of trusted spokespersons who can overcome the skepticism inherent in conspiratorial thinking about the government and its health-related agencies' recommendations for a particular vaccine.

Individual Differences in Delay Discounting are Associated with Dorsal Prefrontal Cortex Connectivity in Youth.

Delay discounting is a measure of impulsive choice relevant in adolescence as it predicts many real-life outcomes, including substance use disorders, obesity, and academic achievement. However, the functional networks underlying individual differences in delay discounting during youth remain incompletely described. Here we investigate the association between multivariate patterns of functional connectivity and individual differences in impulsive choice in a large sample of youth. A total of 293 youth (9-23 years) completed a delay discounting task and underwent resting-state fMRI at 3T. A connectome-wide analysis using multivariate distance-based matrix regression was used to examine whole-brain relationships between delay discounting and functional connectivity was then performed. These analyses revealed that individual differences in delay discounting were associated with patterns of connectivity emanating from the left dorsal prefrontal cortex, a hub of the default mode network. Delay discounting was associated with greater functional connectivity between the dorsal prefrontal cortex and other parts of the default mode network, and reduced connectivity with regions in the dorsal and ventral attention networks. These results suggest that delay discounting in youth is associated with individual differences in relationships both within the default mode network and between the default mode and networks involved in attentional and cognitive control.

Seasonal suicide trends in adolescents in the US: Did they explain the apparent effect of the Netflix show 13 Reasons Why?

INTRODUCTION: Controversy surrounds the effects of the first season of the Netflix show 13 Reasons Why on adolescent suicide in the United States. This research reexamined the question using more sensitive weekly suicide counts and more sensitive tests for seasonal changes in suicide. METHODS: Weekly suicide counts for adolescents ages 10-19 and young people ages 20-29 obtained from CDC were analyzed from 2013 to 2018 NVSS Mortality Data using time series methods. RESULTS: Adolescents ages 10-19 exhibited seasonal changes in suicides that increased from March to April and that also paralleled the school year. The same seasonal pattern was evident in males ages 20-24. There was no evidence of an effect of 13 Reasons in male adolescent suicides in 2017 once seasonality, auto-correlation, and longer term trends were removed. CONCLUSION: Seasonal changes and secular increases can explain why previous studies observed suicide increases in March and April of 2017 in male adolescents. The association between school year and suicide suggests that stressors associated with schooling increase the risk of suicide in some youth. How to reduce these risks is an important focus for future research as is the need to understand the conditions under which fictional depictions of suicide lead to contagion.

Adolescents' own views on their risk behaviors, and the potential effects of being labeled as risk-takers: A commentary and review.

Adolescents are stereotypically viewed as risk-takers ("stereotypical risk-takers") in science, mainstream media, fictional literature and in everyday life. However, increasing research suggests that adolescents do not always engage in "heightened" risk-taking, and adolescents' own perspectives (motives) on risk-taking are largely neglected in research. Hence, this paper is a commentary and review with two aims. First, taking a cross-national perspective, we discuss the definition of adolescence and risk behavior. We argue that much of the research on what drives adolescent risk behavior (e.g., substance use) focuses on the harms that this behavior promotes rather than on the need to explore and grow into adulthood. Thereafter we summarize the dominant approach to studying motives behind substance use, which has mostly considered young adults, and which has typically not focused on adolescents' own self-generated motives. The few empirical studies (including one of our qualitative studies) on adolescents' own motivations for engaging in risk behavior (i.e., cannabis use, alcohol use, and tobacco smoking) show that the most frequently mentioned motives by adolescents were being cool/tough, enjoyment, belonging, having fun and experimenting and coping. Interestingly, the "cool/tough identity" motive is virtually overlooked in research on adolescent risk-taking. The above-mentioned motives, however, generally support newer theories, such as the Developmental Neuro-Ecological Risk-taking Model (DNERM) and the Life-span Wisdom Model that suggest that adolescents' motivations to engage in risk-taking include experimentation, identity development, explorative behavior, and sensation seeking, all of which run counter to the stereotype of adolescents engaging in risk-taking due to "storm and stress." Hence, we also briefly consider additional recent attempts to study positive forms of risk taking. Second, extrapolating from sociological/criminological theories on labeling, we suggest that caution is warranted when (inaccurately) labeling adolescents as the "stereotypical risk-takers," because this can instigate a risk-taking identity in adolescents and/or motivate them to associate with risk-taking peers, which could in turn lead to maladaptive forms of risk-taking. Empirical research testing these hypotheses is needed. To conclude we argue that research on adolescent risk-taking could further benefit from considering adolescent's own motivations, which is also in line with the participatory approach advocated by international children's rights standards.

Conspiratorial thinking as a precursor to opposition to COVID-19 vaccination in the US: a multi-year study from 2018 to 2021.

Despite widespread availability of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines in the US, only about 66% of the eligible US population had taken the recommended initial doses of the COVID-19 vaccines as of April 2022. Explanations for this hesitancy have focused on misinformation about the vaccines, lack of trust in health authorities, and acceptance of conspiracy theories about the pandemic. Here we test whether those with a conspiratorial mindset, which distrusts a wide range of institutions, were poised to reject COVID vaccines before the pandemic even began. To answer that question, we reinterviewed members of a national US panel that we had previously surveyed beginning in 2018. As hypothesized, having a conspiratorial mindset in 2019 predicted COVID-vaccination hesitancy in 2021 better than prior trust in health authorities or acceptance of vaccine misinformation. Those with the mindset were also more likely to consume media that bolstered belief in pandemic conspiracies. Research is needed on the determinants of conspiratorial mindset and ways to minimize the likelihood that consequential health decisions will be influenced by it.

Misinformation about vaccine safety and uptake of COVID-19 vaccines among adults and 5-11-year-olds in the United States.

Despite increasing rates of vaccination for COVID-19 in the US, hesitancy continues to be a barrier to the full immunization of the eligible population. Hesitancy appears to be particularly pronounced among adults deciding whether to recommend that children be vaccinated against COVID-19. In this research, we tested whether embrace of misinformation about the safety of vaccination is associated with hesitancy to vaccinate oneself and to recommend vaccination of a 5-11-year-old child for COVID-19. In a national probability panel created in April 2021, we assessed belief in both general vaccination misinformation and misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines, in particular. As hypothesized, belief in general vaccination misinformation predicted the uptake in reported vaccination among adults through September 2021, and likelihood to recommend COVID-19 vaccination of children aged 5-11 in January 2022, three months after the approval of that vaccine. In addition, misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines that arose over time correlated highly with more general vaccination misinformation. For both outcomes, general vaccine misinformation predicted vaccination hesitancy beyond concerns about the health risks of contracting COVID-19 for one's family and children ages 5-11. The findings indicate that continued efforts are needed to bolster beliefs about the safety of authorized and approved vaccines of many types and not just those for COVID-19. Some strategies to achieve this objective are suggested.

Novel use of a virtual driving assessment to classify driver skill at the time of licensure.

Motor vehicle crash rates are highest immediately after licensure, and driver error is one of the leading causes. Yet, few studies have quantified driving skills at the time of licensure, making it difficult to identify at-risk drivers before independent driving. Using data from a virtual driving assessment implemented into the licensing workflow in Ohio, this study presents the first population-level study classifying degree of skill at the time of licensure and validating these against a measure of on-road performance: license exam outcomes. Principal component and cluster analysis of 33,249 virtual driving assessments identified 20 Skill Clusters that were then grouped into 4 major summary "Driving Classes"; i) No Issues (i.e. careful and skilled drivers); ii) Minor Issues (i.e. an average new driver with minor vehicle control skill deficits); iii) Major Issues (i.e. drivers with more control issues and who take more risks); and iv) Major Issues with Aggression (i.e. drivers with even more control issues and more reckless and risk-taking behavior). Category labels were determined based on patterns of VDA skill deficits alone (i.e. agnostic of the license examination outcome). These Skill Clusters and Driving Classes had different distributions by sex and age, reflecting age-related licensing policies (i.e. those under 18 and subject to GDL and driver education and training), and were differentially associated with subsequent performance on the on-road licensing examination (showing criterion validity). The No Issues and Minor Issues classes had lower than average odds of failing, and the other two more problematic Driving Classes had higher odds of failing. Thus, this study showed that license applicants can be classified based on their driving skills at the time of licensure. Future studies will validate these Skill Cluster classes in relation to their prediction of post-licensure crash outcomes.

Cascades From Early Adolescent Impulsivity to Late Adolescent Antisocial Personality Disorder and Alcohol Use Disorder.

PURPOSE: The behavioral disinhibition model (BDM) posits that a liability toward impulsivity evident by early adolescence underlies the coemergence of antisocial behavior and alcohol use (i.e., problem behaviors) in early-adolescence to mid-adolescence, but that the subsequent development of these problem behaviors (rather than impulsivity itself) predicts the emergence of antisocial personality disorder (APD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) in late adolescence. The present study was designed to test these predictions of the BDM from early to late adolescence. METHODS: We used five-year longitudinal self-report data from the Philadelphia Trajectory Study that was collected from 2006-2012. Mediational analyses were performed using the Random Intercept Cross-lagged Panel Model, which enables the detection of within-person predictions of changes in problem behaviors during adolescence. The sample was ethnically and socioeconomically diverse, including 364 urban US community youth (at baseline: Mage = 13.51(.95); 49.1% female). RESULTS: Consistent with the BDM, mediational analyses revealed that changes in early adolescent impulsivity predicted late adolescent APD and AUD criteria, mediated by changes in mid-adolescent alcohol use and conduct problems. DISCUSSION: Interventions targeting impulsivity in early adolescence could potentially halt the cascading chain of events leading to both late adolescent APD and AUD by decelerating growth in antisocial behavior and alcohol use during early-adolescence to mid-adolescence. From mid-adolescence to late-adolescence, the consequences of early impulsivity, especially involvement in antisocial behaviors, become a more relevant predictor of both APD and AUD rather than impulsivity itself.

Licensing Examination and Crash Outcomes Postlicensure in Young Drivers.

Importance: Despite US graduated driver licensing laws, young novice driver crash rates remain high. Study findings suggest comprehensive license policy that mandates driver education including behind-the-wheel (BTW) training may reduce crashes postlicensure. However, only 15 states mandate BTW training. Objective: To identify differences in licensing and crash outcomes for drivers younger than 18 years who are subject to comprehensive licensing requirements (graduated driver licensing, driver education, and BTW training) vs those aged 18 to 24 years who are exempt from these requirements. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, population-based cohort study used Ohio licensing data to define a cohort of 2018 license applicants (age 16-24 years, n = 136 643) and tracked licensed driver (n = 129 897) crash outcomes up to 12 months postlicensure. The study was conducted from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019, and data analysis was performed from October 7, 2019, to February 11, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Licensing examination performance and population-based, police-reported crash rates in the first 2 months and 12 months postlicensure across age groups, sex, and census tract-level sociodemographic variables were measured. Poisson regression models compared newly licensed driver crash rates, with reference to individuals licensed at 18 years, while controlling for census tract-level sociodemographic factors, time spent in the learner permit period, and licensing examination performance measures. Results: Of 136 643 novice drivers, 69 488 (50.9%) were male and 67 152 (49.1%) were female. Mean (SD) age at enrollment (age at first on-road examination) was 17.7 (2.1) years. License applicants aged 16 and 17 years performed best on license examinations (15 466 [21.6%] and 5112 [30.9%] failing vs 7981 [37.5%] of applicants aged 18 years). Drivers licensed at 18 years had the highest crash rates of all those younger than 25 years. Compared with drivers licensed at 18 years, crash rates were 27% lower in individuals aged 16 years and 14% lower in those aged 17 years during the first 2 months postlicensure when controlling for socioeconomic status, time spent in learner permit status, and license examination performance measures (adjusted relative risk [aRR] at age 16 years: 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80; age 17 years: aRR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.96). At 12 months postlicensure, crash rates were 19% lower for individuals licensed at age 16 years (aRR, 0.81; 95%, CI, 0.77-0.85) and 6% lower at age 17 years (aRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99) compared with individuals aged 18 years. Conclusions and Relevance: In Ohio, drivers younger than 18 years who are subject to graduated driver licensing and driver education, including BTW training requirements, had lower crash rates in the first year postlicensure compared with those aged 18 years, with controls applied. These findings suggest that it may be fruitful for future work to reconsider the value of mandated driver license policies, including BTW training, and to examine reasons for delayed licensure and barriers to accessing training.

Selection versus socialization effects of peer norms on adolescent cigarette use.

Adolescent smokers tend to have friends who also smoke. This association has been attributed to peer socialization and peer selection effects. However, evidence regarding timing and relative magnitude of these effects is mixed. Using a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model, we examined the reciprocal relations between adolescent cigarette use and perceptions of friends' cigarette use in a sample of 387 adolescents, assessed annually for 4 years. Adolescent cigarette use predicted increases in perceived friend use before the reverse effect emerged. Further, some of the effect of early adolescent cigarette use on subsequent use was mediated by changes in perceived friend use. The results support a greater role for friend selection than socialization in predicting early adolescent cigarette use.

The role of non-COVID-specific and COVID-specific factors in predicting a shift in willingness to vaccinate: A panel study.

Although declines in intent to vaccinate had been identified in international surveys conducted between June and October 2020, including in the United States, some individuals in the United States who previously expressed reluctance said, in spring 2021, that they were willing to vaccinate. That change raised the following questions: What factors predicted an increased willingness to inoculate against COVID-19? And, to what extent was the change driven by COVID-specific factors, such as personal worry about the disease and COVID-specific misinformation, and to what extent by background (non-COVID-specific) factors, such as trust in medical authorities, accurate/inaccurate information about vaccination, vaccination history, and patterns of media reliance? This panel study of more than 8,000 individuals found that trust in health authorities anchored acceptance of vaccination and that knowledge about vaccination, flu vaccination history, and patterns of media reliance played a more prominent role in shifting individuals from vaccination hesitance to acceptance than COVID-specific factors. COVID-specific conspiracy beliefs did play a role, although a lesser one. These findings underscore the need to reinforce trust in health experts, facilitate community engagement with them, and preemptively communicate the benefits and safety record of authorized vaccines. The findings suggest, as well, the need to identify and deploy messaging able to undercut health-related conspiracy beliefs when they begin circulating.

Conspiratorial thinking, selective exposure to conservative media, and response to COVID-19 in the US.

RATIONALE: Previous research has shown that during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, users of conservative media were more likely to accept conspiracy theories about the pandemic and less likely to accept pandemic mitigation measures such as mask-wearing and vaccination. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that during the first year of the pandemic, viewers who were prone to conspiratorial thinking engaged in selective exposure to conservative media which served to enhance pandemic-related conspiracy beliefs. METHODS: A national 3-wave longitudinal survey of 883 US respondents running from March to November 2020 assessed media-use habits, belief in COVID-related conspiracies, conspiratorial thinking, mask-wearing, intention to accept a COVID vaccine, and trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Growth curve models were used to analyze changes in conspiracy beliefs and associated public health outcomes. RESULTS: Users of conservative media were disproportionately likely to engage in conspiratorial thinking, to vote for President Trump, and to be ideologically conservative. They were also less likely to use mainstream news sources and displayed increasing belief in pandemic conspiracies. Increases in conspiracy beliefs were associated with reduced support for pandemic prevention. Although users of conservative media supported vaccination and trusted the CDC at the outset of the study, continued exposure to conservative media reduced support for both. Increasing use of mainstream print was associated with less endorsement of pandemic conspiracy beliefs. Viewers of mainstream television news did not exhibit change in pandemic conspiracy beliefs over time. CONCLUSION: Conservative media in the US have attracted users prone to conspiratorial thinking and conservative political views who are also less exposed to mainstream news. The selective use of these media enhances belief in conspiracies that pose challenges to the country's ability to control a public health crisis such as the COVID pandemic.

Patterns of Media Use, Strength of Belief in COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories, and the Prevention of COVID-19 From March to July 2020 in the United States: Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: Holding conspiracy beliefs regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has been associated with reductions in both actions to prevent the spread of the infection (eg, mask wearing) and intentions to accept a vaccine when one becomes available. Patterns of media use have also been associated with acceptance of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. Here we ask whether the type of media on which a person relies increased, decreased, or had no additional effect on that person's COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs over a 4-month period. OBJECTIVE: We used panel data to explore whether use of conservative and social media in the United States, which were previously found to be positively related to holding conspiracy beliefs about the origins and prevention of COVID-19, were associated with a net increase in the strength of those beliefs from March to July of 2020. We also asked whether mainstream news sources, which were previously found to be negatively related to belief in pandemic-related conspiracies, were associated with a net decrease in the strength of such beliefs over the study period. Additionally, we asked whether subsequent changes in pandemic conspiracy beliefs related to the use of media were also related to subsequent mask wearing and vaccination intentions. METHODS: A survey that we conducted with a national US probability sample in March of 2020 and again in July with the same 840 respondents assessed belief in pandemic-related conspiracies, use of various types of media information sources, actions taken to prevent the spread of the disease and intentions to vaccinate, and various demographic characteristics. Change across the two waves was analyzed using path analytic techniques. RESULTS: We found that conservative media use predicted an increase in conspiracy beliefs (ß=.17, 99% CI .10-.25) and that reliance on mainstream print predicted a decrease in their belief (ß=-.08, 99% CI -.14 to -.02). Although many social media platforms reported downgrading or removing false or misleading content, ongoing use of such platforms by respondents predicted growth in conspiracy beliefs as well (ß=.072, 99% CI .018-.123). Importantly, conspiracy belief changes related to media use between the two waves of the study were associated with the uptake of mask wearing and changes in vaccination intentions in July. Unlike other media, use of mainstream broadcast television predicted greater mask wearing (ß=.17, 99% CI .09-.26) and vaccination intention (ß=.08, 95% CI .02-.14), independent of conspiracy beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: The findings point to the need for greater efforts on the part of commentators, reporters, and guests on conservative media to report verifiable information about the pandemic. The results also suggest that social media platforms need to be more aggressive in downgrading, blocking, and counteracting claims about COVID-19 vaccines, claims about mask wearing, and conspiracy beliefs that have been judged problematic by public health authorities.

The association between the rise of gun violence in popular US primetime television dramas and homicides attributable to firearms, 2000-2018.

Injuries and fatalities due to firearms are a major burden on public health in the US. The rise in gun violence in popular movies has been suggested as a potential cultural influence on this behavior. Nevertheless, homicide rates have not increased over recent decades in the US, suggesting that media portrayals have had little influence on gun violence. Here we challenge this interpretation by examining trends in the proportion of violence that are attributable to firearms, a measure that should be more sensitive to media violence. In addition, we examine trends in the portrayal of guns in popular television (TV) dramas, which are viewed more frequently than movies. We ask (a) whether gun violence has increased in these TV shows not only on an absolute basis but also as a proportion of violent scenes and (b) whether trends in gun portrayal on these shows are associated with corresponding trends in the proportion of real-world violence attributable to firearms in the US from 2000 to 2018. To answer these questions, we coded annual instances of violence, gun violence, and proportion of violence involving guns for each 5-minute segment of 33 popular TV dramas in the police, medical, and legal genres from 2000 to 2018. Trends in annual rates of violence, gun violence and proportion of violence involving guns were determined over the study period and were compared to annual rates of homicide attributable to firearms in three age groups: 15-24, 25-34 and 35 and older. Although violence on TV dramas peaked in 2011, gun use steadily increased over the study period both in absolute terms and in relation to other violent methods. The latter metric paralleled trends in homicides attributable to firearms for all three age groups, with the strongest relationship for youth ages 15-24 (R2 = .40, P = .003). The positive relation between relative amount of TV violence involving guns and actual homicides due to firearms, especially among youth, is consistent with the hypothesis that entertainment media are contributing to the normative acceptance of guns for violent purposes. Future research is needed to study the influence of media violence on gun acquisition at the individual level.